Ranking The Most Likely 12–5 Upsets For The 2017 NCAA Tournament
A №12 seed always knocks off a №5 seed and this year will be no different.
Upsets happen every year at the NCAA Tournament, but there is something about the 12–5 games that just scream upset city. It just feels natural picking at least one upset in a 12–5 game every year.
According to OddsShark, only once in the past 16 March Madness tournaments have the №5 seeds shut out the 12 seeds, and for that scenario you have to go back to 2007. Over the past four seasons, five №12 seeds won outright to continue this hazardous pairing which busts so many brackets.
№12 seeds have had success over the past four years posting an 8–8 record straight up and 11–4–1 mark against the spread in first round games. That’s strong.
This year’s bracket is no different than year’s past with №12 seeds jumping off of the page to take down a №5 seed. Yesterday we gave you nine tips to filling out the absolutely perfect bracket, and today we’ll rank each of the four 12–5 matchups in their likelihood of actually happening.
1. №12 MTSU over №5 Minnesota (South Region)
MTSU is a team the country fell in love with a year ago when as a 15 seed the Blue Raiders knocked off №2 Michigan State. This year’s MTSU team finished the year 30–4 and is drastically underseeded according to anyone and everyone. This game screams 12–5 upset.
Both teams score right around 75 points per game, but MTSU is a far better shooting team (49.0%) especially from deep shooting just under 37% from three-point land. Minnesota is a better rebounding team than MTSU, but the Blue Raiders have been there done that, can put the ball in the basket and are overall a more athletic bunch.
2. №15 UNC-Wilmington over №5 Virginia (East Region)
If Virgina is known for one thing it’s for taking its sweet-ass time and slowing the game down. UNCW on the other hand is the classic mid-major team out of the CAA that likes to run and score in bunches averaging just under 85 points per game this season.
The Cavaliers on the other hand average just over 66 points per contest. But, it isn’t like Virginia hasn’t seen fast-paced teams in the ACC leading up to this game, but if UNC-Wilmington can dictate the pace ever so slightly in their favor and take care of the ball the Seahawks could pull off the big upset.
3. №12 Nevada over №5 Iowa State (Midwest Region)
I can’t be the only one that thinks back over the last few years and remembers picking Iowa State to make some sort of run and them getting bounced early every year. Those damn Cyclones.
Both of these teams can score. Iowa State averages 80.9 points per game-which ranks 27th in the nation-while Nevada is just behind them averaging 80 points per contest.
If Nevada pulls off the upset it means Cameron Oliver had a massive day and Marcus Marshall did Marcus Marshall things. Marshall averaged 19.8 points per game during the season and Oliver, a 6-foot-8 forward, averaged 15.8 points, 8.7 boards and 2.6 blocks.
Nevada has a short bench and we’ll likely only see a seven-man rotation from them, but those seven guys are long ranging between 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-8.
This may be the highest scoring game of the entire opening round.
4. №12 Princeton over №5 Notre Dame (West Region)
Princeton hasn’t lost a game since Dec. 20 as they enter the tournament winners of 19 straight. Nineteen is a big number, but I don’t see the Tigers getting to №20 against a very good Notre Dame squad.
The Fighting Irish shoot lights out from deep (38.6%) and will have to get very cold for Princeton to pull off the upset. Too much skill, size and experience on the Notre Dame side for them to fall to Princeton. Bonzie Colson will be a matchup nightmare for the Tigers as well.
